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An educated preview of the next Italian constituency in the EP

Electoral posters in Italy [personal archive]

In just one month from now, after the 26 May European elections in Italy, it will be possible to compare this forecast with the actual results. This “educated guess” is based on the published lists by the major political players, on the latest opinion polls, and the possibility for the preferential vote to re-arrange some of the lists, by pushing some candidates higher.  

Without Brexit everything will remain as it is. There will be no changes in the composition of the European Parliament, so next May Italians will have to elect 73 members instead of 76 as previously foreseen because of Brexit. But after the 26 May election, there will be surprises.

It is not possible to say who will sit in the next EU body, but it is already possible try to offer a preview of the politicians most likely to be chosen by the voters. Italians have the possibility to use the preferential vote for specific candidates of the list they support. In case voters just put a cross on the symbol of the political party, the vote will be given automatically to the head of the list. Then, the exceeding votes are distributed to the other candidates according to their position in the list. It means that the more a candidate is high in the list, the more is likely that he or she will be elected.  

The League

Matteo Salvini’s The League will be the great winner of these European elections. In Italy is political force will be the first party, with an unprecedented support (31.4%, according to the latest estimations). At least 26 people are expected to be elected as MEPs, and one of them will be… Salvini himself.

No joke, Salvini decide to be head of the list in all the five constituencies. It sounds weird that Salvini, now in power as vice prime minister, would like leaving the government to stay in Europe. Perhaps he decided to put his name in order to attract more Italians, although theoretically the possibility that he renounce to his post in the European Parliament after the elections cannot be excluded. For the time being, he will be the head of the League delegation in the EP.

Let’s take note of these names: Angelo Ciocca, Oscar Danilo Lancini, Mara Bizzotto, Angelo Attaguile, Paolo Borchia, Matteo Adinolfi, Jacopo Alberti, Francesca Donato, Ilaria Antelmi, Daniela Calderano, Anna Bonfrisco, Marco Campomenosi, Susanna Ceccardi. These are Salvini’s best candidates, all with huge chances to be elected.

It has to be noted that Mario Borghezio is nowhere. He was excluded by Salvini, who decide that Borghezio’s experience with the League in Europe is over.

Five Star Movement

Everything happened on the internet, of course. The Five Star Movement (M5S) chose its own candidates on the Rousseau platform, in what is considered the true expression of direct democracy. The political force claiming to offer a real change in Europe decided to have only female heads of the list, by selecting Daniela Rondinelli, Chiara Maria Gemma, Alessandra Todde, Maria Angela Danzì, Sabrina Pignedoli.

For them it is easy to imagine that they will end up being elected, given their pole position. But there other “strong” names for the Five Stars. Outgoing MEPs Fabio Massimo Castaldo, Eleonora Evi, Ignazio Corrao and Laura Ferrara benefit from good reputation. They are thus accredited also as successful at the elections.

Pienicola Pedicini and Isabella Adinolfi, both outgoing MEPs, are also top in the lists and they found the support of the Movement’s fans. They also could sit again in Brussels.

Democratic Party

The Italian Democratic Party (Partito Democratico, or PD, won’t be able to repeat the exploit of five years ago, and it is expected to bring to Brussels around 16 MEPs. It is of course impossible to foresee who will be elected among the people figuring in the electoral lists, but it is reasonable to imagine that all the heads of the lists will get their seat. These people are Giuliano Pisapia (already mayor of Milan), Carlo Calenda (already minister for Competiveness and Permanent Representative to the EU), Simona Bonafé, Franco Roberti and Caterina Chinnici.

Speaking about the capacity of attracting votes, very good candidates are Patrizia Toia, Brando Benifei, Mercedes Bresso, Paolo De Castro, David Sassoli and Roberto Gualtieri. They all have good chances to be in Brussels in the next legislature, and they seem to be the ones who most likely will be in Europe to represent their party.

Forza Italia

The Italian member of the European People’s Party (EPP), Forza Italia, is expected to experience one of its worse electoral performance ever. According to the latest projections realized by the European Parliament, by the elaboration of data collected by polling institutes, Silvio Berlusconi’s party will be able to elected 9 candidates. One of them will be Silvio Berlusconi himself, who is head of the list in four out the five constituencies. Being the leading candidate practically everywhere, the 82-year old will be back in Brussels for sure.

Antonio Tajani is also very likely to be back in Brussels after the Italian election day. The outgoing president of the European parliament is head of the list in the constituency where he traditionally always succeeded, the one of Central Italy.

Lara Comi, Sandra Savino, Alessandra Mussolini, Barbara Matera e Gabriella Giammanco are also in pole-position for an election, being the second candidates in the lists drafted by the party for the upcoming European elections. Lara Comi and Barbara Matera run for a third mandate in a row, while Mussolini, the granddaughter of Italian fascist dictator Benito Mussolini, is in search of a second election. In case of victory Giammanco would serve as Member of the European Parliament for the first time in her political career.

Former DC man Lorenza Cesa has also good chances to be chosen by the Italian voters. He has been put in third position in the Central Italy constituency, and an election would be not a surprise. A last remaining seat is reserved to the SVP, the main political party of the German speaking community of Italy, in coalition with Forza Italia.

Brothers of Italy

Post-fascist party Brothers of Italy (Fratelli d’Italia, or FdI) will see the leader Giorgia Meloni be elected in Brussels. The far-right political force is expected to get a total of four seats, assuming that  intentions of vote remain unchanged. Meloni is head of the list everywhere, and it confers her the certainty to travel to Brussels.

A prominent name for this party is Raffaele Fitto, already serving as MEP within the EPP group (first as Forza Italia member, then as president of his own party). But Meloni is pushing on fascist sentiment of Italian by presenting Caio Giulio Cesare Mussolini, the great grandson of Italian fascist dictator Benito Mussolini. Since fascists in Italy are still there, the European Parliament risks having two Duce’s relatives in the Parliament.

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