Ursula von der Leyen won a second mandate at the head of the European Commission, after the vote of the European Parliament which confirmed the 65-year-old lady as the president of the EU body. According to many observers and decision makers the political outcome is a good news for Europe, and there is no doubt that under von der Leyen’s mandate unprecedented achievements have been registered. That was the case for the suspension of the fiscal rules, through the activation of the so-called “escape clause” which put the Stability and Growth Pact in stand-by. Something unthinkable, considering how the Nordic countries of the EU have always attached to the need of sound public finance (i.e, debt and deficit haircuts). For the fist time ever, common debt has been issued in order to finance the post-pandemic recovery of the European economies. The RRF and the eurobond are one of the greatest von der Leyen’s achievements. Furthermore, with a European Union called to face the health crisis posed by COVID-19 pandemic, the EU has started to build up a European Union for Health, something totally new and unexpected given the national competence on the matter.
The European Green Deal can be read as the opportunity for a true revolution, an unprecedented change, a very ambitious agenda, perhaps one of the major political initiatives of the last decades. It can be argued, as it was, that the sustainable agenda of the firs von der Leyen’s Commission has been pushed to far, both in terms of targets and in terms of strategy. A huge amount of money is needed to translate into practice the European Green Deal, as well as raw material. The EU lacks of both element, resulting squeezed between the US rich in money and the PRC rich in natural resources. Going forward with the Green Deal, something promised by von der Leyen in order to be re-elected for her post, means to play a risky geopolitical game in time of geopolitical tensions. It means to look at new partner whose reliability has to be proven. Von der Leyen’s sustainable and innovative agenda can succeed, even though probability of failure don’t miss.
Then, why a von der Leyen second term is not a good news at all for the European Union and its citizens? Because under her leading role, the EU has been shifting from an inclusive mode to an uncompromising one, from a peace-building vision to an aggressive one. One of the best example in this sense is offered by migration. While Jean-Claude Juncker fought against the Member States in order to pass the reception policy, von der Leyen insisted on returns and repatriation. Now, in front of migration used as a blackmailing tool by hostile third countries, the European Union of values has started to make push-back practices acceptable. Migration policy made clear how the newly appointed president of the EU Commission is there to serve the Member States. It was no surprise listening von der Leyen announcing in the Plenary the intention «to propose to triple the number of European Border and Coast Guards to 30,000». The political guidelines for the 2024-2029 period contain a Chekpoint Charlie-in-style decision for a woman joining right-wing logics.
At the same time, the “wolf scandal” showed a president ready to use the EU institution and the president’s prerogatives for personal, private, interests. When one of von der Leyen’s ponies was found dead by a wolf attack (so was it alleged and then confirmed), the same von der Leyen immediately tabled a proposal to reduce safeguard and protection requirements for wolves. She went on despite MEPs warned her about a decision taken without the necessary case studies. She then acted as Viktor Orban, the Hungarian prime minister against who von der Leyen had to fight along the entire political cycle.
Is it enough to state the a second von der Leyen term cannot sounds so good as stated? Looking at foreign affairs, the European Commission was more then quick in imposing sanctions against Iran because of his role in supporting Russia in the Russian-Ukrainian war, but the same didn’t happen in the Middle East crisis. Despite the Israeli violation of international law, no restrictive measures have been proposed by the Commission against who breached the rules. The Arab-Israeli issue has always been sensitive and divisive, but the von der Leyen’s commission finished to adapt a double standard approach, in contradiction with the call of respecting law. And law is supposed to law apply to all. Is that the idea of democracy we have in Europe? Are these the values von der Leyen talks about? The ones of being different before the law?
The arguable von der Leyen’s “to do list” foresaw also the military industry. In the light of the Russian military operation in Ukraine, EU leaders started to ask for military assistance and a new era for the European defense industry. Von der Leyen, once again, decided to re-write the European narrative: peace means defense. George Orwell wrote once: «War is peace», and von der Leyen didn’t go too many far from there. She supported the nomination of Kaja Kallas for the role of the next High Representative for Foreign policy. We talk about the former prime minister of Estonia, who has constantly been stressing the need of inundating Ukraine of tanks, fighter jets, ammunition. Kallas will work closely with new commissioner for Defense, a new figure to come, as announced by von der Leyen.
The fact the EU opted for a political cycle in line with the previous one can maybe provide a certain decree of stability in terms of agenda, but the agenda is actually the point. A more aggressive and less inclusive Union, led by a president of the European Commission in love with herself. Always a tweet, always a picture, always the need to put her face on anybody file or meeting. Welcome to the von der Leyen’s ego-system, enriched by new risky commitments.
In her plenary speech von der Leyen announced the creation of both «a Commissioner whose responsibilities will include housing», and «a first-ever European Affordable Housing Plan». A good and smart move to get the socialists onboard. Unfortunately, here the EU commission can do little, since housing is a national competence, linked to other national competences. Paying a rent or asking for a mortgage requires salary and job contract to be shown. If customers don’t provide enough guarantees, there will be no rent and no loan. Labor market reform can recommended by the European Commission, but it’s up to the Member States to act there. So, there are social intentions from Ursula von der Leyen which can generate expectations difficult to fulfill, providing the anti-EU forces extra arguments to go against the European project. No, Ursula von der Leyen’s re-election is not a good news, at all.